'Selling could further intensify and take the index towards 22,800-22,750 in the near-term.'
The rally in Indian mid-and smallcap indices thus far in calendar year 2024 (CY24) has been the best in class across the world, eclipsing the global FTSE benchmarks, and also out running peers from other leading world stock markets. This is despite the correction in the mid-and smallcap segments back home seen in the last few days, triggered by valuation concerns, geopolitical developments amid nervousness ahead of the July - September 2024 (Q2-FY25) corporate results season.
The NSE Nifty 50 has slipped 3.4 per cent, or 764 points, in the last five trading sessions, after registering a fresh all-time high at 22,794.70 on Friday, May 03, 2024. In the process, the Nifty 50 index is seen quoting close to its 100-DMA (Daily Moving Average) of 21,970 for the second time in less than a month. Earlier on April 19, 2024, the Nifty 50 had tested the 100-DMA support, and then staged a smart rally of 4.7 per cent, or 1,017 points, to hit the new peak of 22,794.70.
If the index is unable to sustain above 24,500 levels, technically it can then slip to its 200-DMA placed at 23,365 levels.
Tracking losses in the broader market that has seen the Nifty Smallcap 250 index and the Nifty Midcap 100 indices slip 9 per cent 6.1 per cent in the last three sessions, the frontline Nifty 50 index has remained resilient and registered a fall of 2.2 per cent during this period. Going ahead, can the nervousness in the mid- and small-cap universe spread to the large-cap peers? Most analysts do not think so. They expect a minor dip and a sharp recovery as investors flock to the large-caps in search of safety and value buying as the mid-and small-caps falter.
Indian frontline benchmarks - the S&P BSE Sensex and the Nifty50 - have rallied around 12 per cent each since June-end and outperformed their global peers by a wide margin. On Thursday, the US Fed hiked interest rates by another 75 basis points (bps) - the third such hike this year - and surprised the markets by projecting further sizable hikes in the coming months. With the latest hike, the Fed fund rate (FFR) now stands in the range of 3 - 3.25 per cent and is highest since January 2008.
The domestic benchmark indices - the S&P BSE Sensex and the National Stock Exchange Nifty50 - had lost close to 1.5 per cent in three days recently before gaining slightly. Notwithstanding weakness and volatility, the Nifty50 has managed to hold on to the 18,000 mark, while the Sensex has managed to stay above the 61,000 level. The performance of the stocks that comprise these front-line indices remains polarised.
The Sensex gained 7,430.37 points, or 27.91 per cent, this year.
VIX is meant to indicate investors' perception of the annual market volatility over the next 30 calendar days. The higher the value, the higher is the expected volatility and vice versa. VIX touched its historical peak of 85.13 on November 17, 2008, in the aftermath of the collapse of Lehman Brothers. In the past five years, it has stayed below 30.
According to experts, the Nifty has continued to form lower top-lower bottom formations, a trend seen in the last five weeks, and witnessed sharp selling towards 9,700 zones.
'We are expecting lower levels in the week beginning March 1.'
The broader Nifty of National Stock Exchange scaled the 10,200 mark intra day before closing at 10,184.85, showing a sizeable gain of 38.30 points, or 0.38 per cent.
While PNB did not name the other lenders, Union Bank of India, Allahabad Bank and Axis Bank are said to have offered credit based on letters of undertaking (LOUs) issued by PNB. Foreign bank branches too are under investigation.
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